How The Strange Campaign Redefined the Conventional Coach of the Year Formula.
Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.
On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.
However the current field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other elite coaches.
Below is how the projected vote could be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!
Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.
Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.
The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.
After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
